Archive for the ‘Trade’ Category

U.S./Mexico: Improving Tone, But Nothing’s Final

April 20, 2017

Antonio O. Garza (U.S. Ambassador to Mexico, 2002-2009)

Cross posted from Ambassador Garza’s website

These past few weeks have presented the Trump administration with its first real foreign policy tests. Syria’s use of chemical weapons, the United States’ retaliatory airstrikes, the nuclear standoff with North Korea, and China and Russia’s constant maneuvering in this ever-moving foreign policy chess board. Yet in these globally-focused days and weeks, Mexico—once seemingly the administration’s top focus—has skirted below the radar.

Today’s U.S.-Mexico relationship is marked by a relatively thoughtful tone, which I for one interpret as good news. As the economic tensions have eased slightly, the continental conversation has begun to center more on fair trade, each countries’ interests, and job creation, a healthier tone for beginning NAFTA negotiations than the protectionist talk that dominated economic discussions just a few months ago.

On bilateral security cooperation, the discussion has also become more focused. Throughout the change in U.S. administrations, law enforcement on both sides of the border have continued to work together with little interruption. And at the highest level, DHS Secretary John Kelly has continuously heralded the United States’ cooperation with Mexico as both positive and critically important.

Yet while bilateral relations may be on more stable ground, Mexico continues to face its own range of domestic drama. In the ongoing saga of fugitive governors, there has been some recent success. Interpol and Guatemalan officials captured Veracruz Governor Javier Duarte in Guatemala and Italian officials nabbed former Governor of Tamaulipas Tomas Yarrington, with both now facing charges of corruption and collusion with organized crime. Yet, there are still governors on the run, with former Chihuahua Governor Cesar Duarte missing and possibly hiding out in El Paso.

The stories of corruption and ongoing violence will continue to play out as we move ever closer to Mexico’s presidential elections in July 2018. To get a sense of what Mexico’s population is feeling in the election’s lead-up, be sure to watch the State of Mexico’s election this coming June. President Peña Nieto’s PRI party has governed the state for almost a century, but the three opposition candidates are making it a close run. Also tellingly, insecurity has been a big theme of the campaigns with both the PRI and the PAN releasing TV spots that focus on the state’s security conditions.

However, one cautionary note before we fall back into a more predictable and comfortable bilateral relationship or get swept away in Mexico’s electoral intrigue. While the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship is on better footing, now is not the time for complacency. Ensuring cooperative economic and security relations requires consistent and tireless effort to protect what works and continually improve those areas where things could be better. This may always be true, but amid shifting policies, it’s critical.

Treat Mexico as a Strategic Partner

February 21, 2017

John D. Negroponte (Mexico, 1989-1993)
James R. Jones (Mexico, 1993-1997)
Jeffrey Davidow (Mexico, 1998-2002)
Antonio Garza (Mexico, 2002-2009)
Carlos Pascual (Mexico, 2009-2011)
Earl Anthony Wayne (Mexico, 2011-2015)

An edited version of this piece appeared in The Washington Post.

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Mexico is of enormous importance to the United States. We have strong strategic interests in a relationship of respect and collaboration with Mexico while we work through differences on trade, security, and migration.

US-Mexico relations touch the daily lives of more Americans than ties with any other country, whether through culture, commerce or travel. US prosperity and the security of our homeland are deeply affected by the type of relationship we have with our southern neighbor.

Much can be improved between Mexico and the US for the good of both countries, but tackling these challenges need not be a win-lose proposition. Both countries can gain security and prosperity. Reviving the animosity and “distance” that characterized our relationship in the seventies or eighties is dangerous and runs counter to our interests.

The six of us have served as U.S. Ambassadors to Mexico, managing the ever-improving relationship across Democratic and Republican administrations since the late eighties. We have seen firsthand the strategic value of working cooperatively with Mexico to tackle common problems, including crime, terrorism and global economic competition. Along the way, Mexico has become a more democratic and prosperous country, making it a better and more reliable partner.

We are now deeply concerned to see this foundation shaken. Public attitudes in both countries are being soured by exaggerated public accusations. Mexicans believe that their national “dignity” has been insulted. Champions of closer cooperation with the US are on the defensive. Nationalist voices are gaining traction. This is not in America’s long-term interest.

The United States and Mexico started our modern journey to closer partnership with the 1993 North American Free Trade Agreement. Collectively, the six of us have worked through every stage of NAFTA. This is not a perfect agreement, but neither is it the job killer some have construed. Since NAFTA was signed in 1993, U.S. jobs linked to trade with Mexico grew from 700,000 to 4.9 million. The value of our two-way trade has grown six fold, reaching $584 billion in 2015. Mexico is now the second largest market for US exports, larger than our exports to China, Japan, and Germany combined. Mexico is the third largest buyer of US agricultural products. We build many things together, with parts crossing borders in both directions – so much so that finished Mexican manufactured exports were found to have 40% U.S. content.

US jobs moved to Mexico, but others were created by NAFTA. A 2013 study estimated that the US is $127 billion richer each year because of extra NAFTA trade. New studies have made clear that the big causes of US manufacturing job losses are automation and trade with China, not NAFTA. NAFTA can be improved to help boost the US economy in such areas as “rule of origin,” services, e-commerce, border inefficiencies, and labor standards. Those are the issues that should be negotiated based on facts to strengthen a long-term relationship that makes both countries more competitive.

Energy deserves special mention. Under NAFTA, Mexico’s nationalized energy sector was still off limits to US companies. In 2013, Mexico opened investment and trade in oil, natural gas, electricity, renewables, and refined fuels to US and other companies. Today, the US exports more natural gas and gasoline to Mexico than to any country. In December, major US companies won licenses to develop Mexico’s oil reserves, while others are partners in new pipelines. These openings make North America more energy secure.

The US deficit with Mexico gets more public attention than it deserves. Mexico represents 8% of our deficit. Our deficits with China, the EU and Japan are larger. The deficit with Mexico declined by over 40% between 2010 and 2015, even as our trade grew 35%.

A sharp point of contention has been over the border wall and migration. The great irony is that today there are 1.1 million fewer undocumented Mexicans in the US than in 2007. Apprehensions of Mexicans at the border have reached the lowest levels of this century. Mexico has joined us to manage the surge in migrants from Central America, deporting over 165,000 from its southern border in 2015, more than the United States did. Publically demanding that Mexico pay for a wall that Mexicans don’t think is needed has fueled anti-American nationalism. That limits the capacity of Mexico’s government to work with us to find solutions.

Common borders also made Mexico and the United States partners in national security. Ever since 9/11, Mexico and the US have worked closely to stop potential terrorists from entering the US. We also work to improve the fight against illicit trafficking. The trafficking of heroin and other drugs into the US and the smuggling of weapons and drug profits into Mexico fuel violence, corruption, and deaths in both countries. Still, during the years of our collective service, law enforcement officials have built trust, competency and legal channels to act against criminal networks. That cooperation needs to be strengthened, not undermined.

Together, the authors have witnessed profound and positive changes in the US-Mexico relationship over the last quarter century. We urge that the US engage in serious, fact-based negotiations over differences on trade and other issues. Intimidating or denigrating remarks make it harder to reach outcomes that support American economic and security interests and fuel anti-Americanism in Mexico. Workers, companies, and communities of both countries will prosper with a long-term strategic partnership between the US and Mexico. Let’s keep building it.